New Pinpoint Polling: Pro-Growth Policies Winning in Blue Wall States of PA, MI & WI + 2024 Presidential & Senate Polls

Pinpoint Policy Institute has a new poll out today showing that voters in the three critical Blue Wall states of PA, MI and WI strongly support pro-growth policies and reject the “new right” populist economic agenda of bigger government and higher taxes (see this Semafor piece for related news coverage). The poll also finds Trump leading Harris in 2 of the 3 Blue Wall states (within the margin of error).

The survey was conducted Aug 19-21 by national polling firm Fabrizio Ward. Here’s a topline memo on the poll from Fabrizio Ward and slide deck with full results.

Pinpoint’s poll demonstrates that across Blue Wall states of PA, MI and WI, both Republicans and swing voters strongly embrace pro-growth policies, including lower taxes, fewer regulations, and smaller government. A few key findings:

• 91% of all Blue Wall state voters – and 95% of swing voters – support “promoting pro-growth economic policies”
• 89% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 64% of swing voters support extending the Trump tax cuts
• 80% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 62% of swing voters think the federal government’s role should be reduced to allow the free market to shape commerce
• 90% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 74% of swing voters reject spending billions on a federal industrial policy
• 82% of all Blue Wall state voters – including 97% of Republicans and 84% of swing voters – think workers should have a right to work whether they’re represented by a labor union or not

The poll further finds that across the Blue Wall states, there’s very limited GOP or swing voter support for the “new right” populist policy agenda of higher taxes and bigger government recently advanced by players like Oren Cass, American Compass, and others. For example:

• Just 11% of Blue Wall state Republicans support letting the Trump tax cuts expire
• Just 10% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 20% of swing voters support greatly expanding the scope of the federal government to regulate and shape commerce
• Just 10% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 26% of swing voters support a federal “industrial policy” where the federal government spends billions of taxpayer dollars to support manufacturing in the U.S.
• Just 3% of Blue Wall state Republicans and 16% of swing voters think it’s okay to force workers to be represented by a labor union

The poll also has 2024 presidential and U.S. Senate race results for PA, MI and WI. Across all these states, we find a combined tied presidential race at 47-47, with the following state-by-state results all within the margin of error:

• In PA, Trump leads Harris 47-46
• In MI, Trump leads Harris 48-46
• In WI, Harris leads Trump 49-45

The results of Pinpoint’s survey makes clear that candidates that appeal to voters’ economic concerns with a pro-growth message are best positioned to carry the day. 

Indeed, the polling data shows that both Republican and swing voters across the industrial Midwest roundly reject the higher taxes and big government interventions advanced in recent years by so-called “new right” populist players. 

Our data shows that good policy is good politics. Pro-growth policies are the best path for our economic future, and also popular across America – including in these key Midwestern battleground states.